2006 Governor · NY
Siena College · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 69% · Republican 24%
D+45.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.34% · Republican 23.54%
D+34.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 69 − 24 = 45.00
- Actual margin = 58.343 − 23.536 = 34.807
- Signed miss = 45.00 − (34.807) = 10.193
- Absolute miss = |10.193| = 10.193
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24710, race ID 1350 (538 database).