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2006 Senate · NY

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 65% · Republican 28%

D+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.42% · Republican 25.80%

D+31.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 65 − 28 = 37.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.416 − 25.803 = 31.613
  3. Signed miss = 37.00 − (31.613) = 5.387
  4. Absolute miss = |5.387| = 5.387

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24710, race ID 1600 (538 database).