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2006 Governor · MN

Minneapolis Star Tribune · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,027 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.73% · Republican 46.69%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.733 − 46.691 = -0.958
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (-0.958) = 5.958
  4. Absolute miss = |5.958| = 5.958

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24719, race ID 1345 (538 database).