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2006 Governor · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 560 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 38%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.59% · Republican 35.44%

D+27.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 38 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.585 − 35.440 = 27.145
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (27.145) = -8.145
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.145| = 8.145

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24802, race ID 1330 (538 database).