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2006 Senate · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 560 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 53%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.50% · Republican 53.34%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 53 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.499 − 53.341 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-9.842) = -3.159
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.159| = 3.159

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24802, race ID 1581 (538 database).