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2006 Governor · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 687 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (14.059) = -8.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.059| = 8.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24822, race ID 1344 (538 database).