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2006 Senate · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 687 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (15.652) = -5.652
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.652| = 5.652

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24822, race ID 1591 (538 database).