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2006 Governor · MN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 606 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.73% · Republican 46.69%

R+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.733 − 46.691 = -0.958
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-0.958) = 1.958
  4. Absolute miss = |1.958| = 1.958

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24829, race ID 1345 (538 database).