2006 Senate · MO
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 793 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%
D+2.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.270) = 3.730
- Absolute miss = |3.730| = 3.730
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24832, race ID 1594 (538 database).