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2006 Governor · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 436 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 38%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 38 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (23.893) = -6.892
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.892| = 6.892

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24838, race ID 1351 (538 database).