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2006 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 436 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 42%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 42 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (12.349) = -0.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.349| = 0.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24838, race ID 1602 (538 database).