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2006 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 563 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 37%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 37 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (12.349) = 7.651
  4. Absolute miss = |7.651| = 7.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24839, race ID 1602 (538 database).