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2006 Governor · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 679 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 34%

D+28.0

The certified result

Democrat 68.60% · Republican 29.74%

D+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 34 = 28.00
  2. Actual margin = 68.598 − 29.741 = 38.857
  3. Signed miss = 28.00 − (38.857) = -10.857
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.857| = 10.857

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24844, race ID 1357 (538 database).