Skip to content

2006 Governor · TN

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 780 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 66% · Republican 29%

D+37.0

The certified result

Democrat 68.60% · Republican 29.74%

D+38.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 66 − 29 = 37.00
  2. Actual margin = 68.598 − 29.741 = 38.857
  3. Signed miss = 37.00 − (38.857) = -1.857
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.857| = 1.857

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24845, race ID 1357 (538 database).