2006 Senate · VA
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 741 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (0.393) = 7.606
- Absolute miss = |7.606| = 7.606
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24848, race ID 1609 (538 database).