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2006 Senate · VA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.393) = -3.394
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.394| = 3.394

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24849, race ID 1609 (538 database).