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2006 Senate · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 774 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.85% · Republican 39.93%

D+16.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.853 − 39.933 = 16.920
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (16.920) = -3.919
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.919| = 3.919

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24855, race ID 1610 (538 database).