Skip to content

2006 Senate · OH

University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2006-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,008 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 44%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 44 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (12.349) = -0.349
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.349| = 0.349

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24866, race ID 1602 (538 database).