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2006 Senate · AZ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 798 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.50% · Republican 53.34%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.499 − 53.341 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-9.842) = 5.841
  4. Absolute miss = |5.841| = 5.841

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24879, race ID 1581 (538 database).