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2006 Governor · CA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 877 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.91% · Republican 55.88%

R+17.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.905 − 55.881 = -16.976
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-16.976) = 6.976
  4. Absolute miss = |6.976| = 6.976

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24881, race ID 1331 (538 database).