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2006 Senate · CT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 5%

D+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.73% · Republican 9.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 5 = 39.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.730 − 9.623 = 30.107
  3. Signed miss = 39.00 − (30.107) = 8.893
  4. Absolute miss = |8.893| = 8.893

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24882, race ID 1583 (538 database).