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2006 Governor · MA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 799 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 32%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.63% · Republican 35.33%

D+20.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 32 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.635 − 35.334 = 20.301
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (20.301) = 8.699
  4. Absolute miss = |8.699| = 8.699

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24884, race ID 1341 (538 database).