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2006 Senate · MA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 799 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 27%

D+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 66.88% · Republican 29.48%

D+37.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 27 = 40.00
  2. Actual margin = 66.883 − 29.482 = 37.401
  3. Signed miss = 40.00 − (37.401) = 2.599
  4. Absolute miss = |2.599| = 2.599

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24884, race ID 1590 (538 database).