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2006 Senate · MI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%

D+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (15.652) = -0.652
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.652| = 0.652

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24886, race ID 1591 (538 database).