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2006 Senate · MO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 50%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 50 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.270) = -2.270
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.270| = 2.270

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24888, race ID 1594 (538 database).