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2006 Senate · NJ

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 47%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 47 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (16.019) = -10.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.019| = 10.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24889, race ID 1598 (538 database).