2006 Senate · NV
YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 40.99% · Republican 55.36%
R+14.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 40.990 − 55.358 = -14.368
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-14.368) = 3.368
- Absolute miss = |3.368| = 3.368
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24890, race ID 1597 (538 database).