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2006 Senate · OH

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,003 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 40%

D+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.16% · Republican 43.81%

D+12.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 40 = 18.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.164 − 43.815 = 12.349
  3. Signed miss = 18.00 − (12.349) = 5.651
  4. Absolute miss = |5.651| = 5.651

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24891, race ID 1602 (538 database).