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2006 Governor · PA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 1,005 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 37%

D+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.37% · Republican 39.63%

D+20.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 37 = 24.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.365 − 39.635 = 20.730
  3. Signed miss = 24.00 − (20.730) = 3.271
  4. Absolute miss = |3.271| = 3.271

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24892, race ID 1353 (538 database).