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2006 Senate · WV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 301 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 67% · Republican 33%

D+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 77.05% · Republican 22.95%

D+54.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 67 − 33 = 34.00
  2. Actual margin = 77.049 − 22.951 = 54.098
  3. Signed miss = 34.00 − (54.098) = -20.098
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.098| = 20.098

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24899, race ID 1611 (538 database).