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2006 Governor · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 804 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 48%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.11% · Republican 52.18%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 48 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.106 − 52.179 = -7.073
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-7.073) = -2.927
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.927| = 2.927

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24995, race ID 1334 (538 database).