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2006 Senate · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 42.8%

D+7.7

The certified result

Democrat 58.06% · Republican 37.94%

D+20.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 42.8 = 7.70
  2. Actual margin = 58.056 − 37.936 = 20.120
  3. Signed miss = 7.70 − (20.120) = -12.420
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.420| = 12.420

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25008, race ID 1592 (538 database).