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2006 Senate · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 48.6%

R+1.3

The certified result

Democrat 49.58% · Republican 47.31%

D+2.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 48.6 = -1.30
  2. Actual margin = 49.578 − 47.308 = 2.270
  3. Signed miss = -1.30 − (2.270) = -3.570
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.570| = 3.570

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25012, race ID 1594 (538 database).