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2006 Senate · NJ

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 42.8%

D+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 42.8 = 5.90
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 5.90 − (16.019) = -10.119
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.119| = 10.119

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25019, race ID 1598 (538 database).