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2006 Senate · RI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 39%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.52% · Republican 46.48%

D+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.519 − 46.481 = 7.038
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.038) = 6.963
  4. Absolute miss = |6.963| = 6.963

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25044, race ID 1604 (538 database).