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2006 Senate · TN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.1% · Republican 49.3%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.99% · Republican 50.71%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.1 − 49.3 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.989 − 50.712 = -2.723
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-2.723) = 1.523
  4. Absolute miss = |1.523| = 1.523

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25047, race ID 1605 (538 database).