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2006 Senate · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47.2%

D+3.8

The certified result

Democrat 49.59% · Republican 49.20%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47.2 = 3.80
  2. Actual margin = 49.594 − 49.201 = 0.393
  3. Signed miss = 3.80 − (0.393) = 3.406
  4. Absolute miss = |3.406| = 3.406

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25058, race ID 1609 (538 database).