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2006 Senate · WA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46.1%

D+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 56.85% · Republican 39.93%

D+16.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46.1 = 3.90
  2. Actual margin = 56.853 − 39.933 = 16.920
  3. Signed miss = 3.90 − (16.920) = -13.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.019| = 13.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25062, race ID 1610 (538 database).