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2006 Governor · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 845 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 47.2%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 52.70% · Republican 45.31%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 47.2 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 52.695 − 45.308 = 7.387
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (7.387) = -7.887
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.887| = 7.887

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25065, race ID 1360 (538 database).