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2006 Senate · WI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 38%

D+9.2

The certified result

Democrat 67.31% · Republican 29.48%

D+37.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 38 = 9.20
  2. Actual margin = 67.307 − 29.477 = 37.830
  3. Signed miss = 9.20 − (37.830) = -28.630
  4. Absolute miss = |-28.630| = 28.630

The poll overstated the Republican by 28.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25065, race ID 1612 (538 database).