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2004 Senate · OK

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-11.520) = 12.520
  4. Absolute miss = |12.520| = 12.520

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25138, race ID 1639 (538 database).