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2004 Senate · CO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.30% · Republican 46.53%

D+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.303 − 46.533 = 4.770
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.770) = -4.770
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.770| = 4.770

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.8 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25178, race ID 1619 (538 database).