2004 Senate · FL
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 47%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.32% · Republican 49.43%
R+1.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 48.321 − 49.434 = -1.113
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.113) = 0.113
- Absolute miss = |0.113| = 0.113
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25181, race ID 1621 (538 database).