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2004 House · NV-3

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 307 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 51%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.40% · Republican 54.46%

R+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 51 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.402 − 54.458 = -14.056
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-14.056) = 4.056
  4. Absolute miss = |4.056| = 4.056

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25186, race ID 3395 (538 database).