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2004 Senate · OK

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-11.520) = 6.520
  4. Absolute miss = |6.520| = 6.520

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25253, race ID 1639 (538 database).