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2004 Senate · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2004-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.35% · Republican 44.11%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.350 − 44.112 = 11.238
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (11.238) = -1.239
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.239| = 1.239

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25255, race ID 1647 (538 database).