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2004 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36.8% · Republican 38%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 41.24% · Republican 52.77%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36.8 − 38 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 41.245 − 52.765 = -11.520
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-11.520) = 10.320
  4. Absolute miss = |10.320| = 10.320

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25266, race ID 1639 (538 database).