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2004 Senate · AR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 644 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 42%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.90% · Republican 44.07%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 42 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.898 − 44.070 = 11.828
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (11.828) = 1.172
  4. Absolute miss = |1.172| = 1.172

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25275, race ID 1617 (538 database).