Skip to content

2004 President · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 609 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 57%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 57.98%

R+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 57 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.375 − 57.975 = -16.600
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-16.600) = -0.400
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.400| = 0.400

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25292, race ID 765 (538 database).