Skip to content

2004 Senate · WI

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.35% · Republican 44.11%

D+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.350 − 44.112 = 11.238
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (11.238) = -6.239
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.239| = 6.239

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25337, race ID 1647 (538 database).